From 1869 onwards, the US was the largest economy in the world; but now it is not. The moment that the world was often discussing-China’s overtaking of the US economy, has just happened. An interesting dimension of the US fall is that now it has to compete with another Emerging economy- India to stay at No 2.
The most credible data about world GDP trends are that from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) in Purchasing Power Parity terms. The Fund’s October 2014 ranking reveals new position of different countries.
China’s ascend to the top was quicker than expected. Thirty five years ago, in 1980, China was at No 10 just below that of India. Its size of GDP was $298 billion compared to India’s $389 billion. Brazil and Mexico were bigger than both India and China. The US as the largest economy had an unquestionable size of 2.8 trillion. Second placed Japan had one third of the US GDP.
In 1990, China jumped to fifth position overtaking India and many other economies, though India improved to seventh position. China’s GDP was 1091 billion just 8 percent higher than India’s $1018 billion.
Ten years after in 2000, China started its face-off with the US after pushing down Japan and Germany. India occupied the No 5 position. Russia which got membership in the IMF in 1992 was placed at 8 and Brazil came down to 9th place.
In 2010, China came closer the US and it seemed that Americans will lose its top position to the rising Asian rival. The US GDP was $15 trillion whereas that of China 12 trillion.
The new rankings in 2014 indicates that both the US and China have 17 trillion economic size. Chinese GDP (17.64) is marginally higher than the US (17.4). India occupies the third position with a GDP of 7.2 trillion.
India’s GDP now is 41 % of the US GDP. One should remember that Chinese GDP was only 35 % of the US in 2000. An easy trend fitting indicate that, India can surpass the US by 2027, with the present growth rate. The interest in the battle for the top slot is over, but for the second has started.