The GDP data from the national income estimator – CSO confirms that Indian economy has marginally edged past the Chinese economy in GDP growth during 2014-15. Provisional estimate by CSO recorded growth rate of GDP for 2014-15 at 7.3%.
Of all, the welcome development is the momentum in growth rate in the fourth quarter of the year. GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is 7.5 percent.
Growth rate of GDP
The reasonably good performance of the economy during the fourth quarter was driven by revival of manufacturing growth. Manufacturing sector has registered an 8.4 % growth rate, which is equal to its best performance for the year during the first quarter.
It was the manufacturing that dragged the economy throughout the last few years. At the same time, it is the same sector where the new government has pinned its hope for economic revival.
The second notable development is the negative growth rate of the agricultural sector. Agriculture GDP has declined by 1.4 per cent during the quarter. The sector’s second consecutive quarterly negative growth is a matter of concern.
For the year as a whole, understandably, the 7.3 % growth is higher than the 7 per cent growth rate achieved by Chinese economy for the same period.
Experts view that this is the year when India has overtaken China in terms GDP growth rate for the first time in many decades. The growth trends for the two countries will continue this new trend.
It is only India’s further progress like close to 10 per cent growth that will decide whether the country can follow the marvelous high growth that China has continuously enjoyed for nearly three decades.