GST revenue trends: Centre on the edge

The first four months’ GST revenue brings puts the central government on knife-edge as the revenue realization trend goes close with the actuals received during the previous years. According to data released by the tax department, GST revenue for the first four months grossed at Rs 361496 crores. Half of this receipts should go to states.

GST collections in the maiden month of July was over Rs 95,000 crore while in August, the figure was around Rs 91,000 crore. During September, the revenue crossed Rs 92,150 crore and for October it slipped nearly 10 per cent to Rs 83,346 crore.

For the centre, if the GST receipts should cross the previous year’s union excise duties except that on petroleum goods and services tax together, there will be no revenue loss. In addition to this, there should be a 14% tax revenue growth.

For 2016-17, the tax receipt from these two taxes (after deducting the tax revenue from petroleum goods) was around Rs 5.4 lakh crores (excise duties except petroleum goods was Rs 2.9 lakh crores whereas the service taxes were around Rs 2.5 lakh crores adjusted for cess revenues). After incorporating a 14% tax revenue growth, the tax revenue from CGST should reach around Rs 6 lakh crores.

For the first four months, the centre may get Rs 1.8 lakh crores (half of Rs 361496 crores). If this is converted for one full year, the tax revenue receipts may just reach Rs 5.4 lakh crores.  The big tax reduction bonanza made by the GST Council in November has adversely affected the tax receipts little bit as the October revenue was declined.

As per the tax department release, the centre has got Rs Rs 58,556 crores in cash till October and the remaining fund lies in credit accounts. On the other hand, the states got around Rs Rs 87,238 crore in cash for the first four months. Some states got revenue loss compensation share as well. 

Tags : gst trends