US and Europe 17 Dec 2015 by Tojo Jose

US Fed makes the historic rate hike

US Fed makes the historic rate hike

The US Federal Reserve has made its first rate hike after the financial crisis today, indicating the end of its sever year long easy money policy. The move is extra ordinary as it will end a period of seven year long easy liquidity situation in the world that flooded liquidity in financial markets across the world including the debt and equity markets of the EMEs. In its monetary policy statement on Wednesday, the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen announced increase in its policy rate which is known as the Fed rate by 0.25%. This is the interest rate that charged by the Fed while giving short term loans to the commercial banks. The Central bank has signaled more increases to come &

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IMF and WTO 15 Dec 2015 by Tojo Jose

Understanding India’s trade discussion strategy at Nairobi

Understanding India’s trade discussion strategy at Nairobi

India has strongly mobilized the opinion of the developing world in favor of the Special and Safeguard Measures all of a sudden. Couple of months back, the SSM was not an agenda at the pre – Ministerial Conference discussions. The late activation of the SSM constitutes an important strategy of India’s trade discussions at Nairobi. This is because WTO is such a forum where countries exchanges concessions in a reciprocal manner. If India has to get a concession say in the form of permission to its food procurement, it has to give a concession to the opposite group- the developed countries n another issue like the new issues. Now, at Nairobi, the advanced countries are b

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IMF and WTO 11 Dec 2015 by Tojo Jose

No to new issues, implement the DDA- India firms stand before Nairobi

No to new issues, implement the DDA- India firms stand before Nairobi

Objecting to the WTO Director General Roberto Azevedo’s stand that Nairobi is the last opportunity, India has disagreed for setting any artificial deadlines.  India’s commerce secretary, Rita Teaotia indicated that negotiations take long time and Doha Development Agenda has not been settled even after fourteen years. Ms Teaotaia’s firmed India’s stand against the potential agenda broadening by the developed countries at Nairobi by bringing ‘new issues’. Pre- Ministerial Conference (MC) talks indicate that the developed countries are in a mood to reintroduce the so called new issues – environment, competition policy government procur

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IMF and WTO 07 Dec 2015 by Tojo Jose

India expects space at Nairobi for a decision on public stock holding of food grains

India expects space at Nairobi for a decision on public stock holding of food grains

Next week’s Nairobi Ministerial Conference (MC) of the WTO is critical for India. First of all, the trade promoting body doesn’t have a serious issue as its pre-ministerial work programme indicates. So far not much preparatory discussions were conducted on any of the trade matters. Secondly, the WTO has to t settle India’s food subsidy issue by the eleventh MC. Hence India may get an opportunity and sufficient time at the MC to its pressing demand for giving food procurement a concessional treatment. Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has asked the WTO to honour decisions taken at Bali on food procurement. "The grievance is that many things which are part of th

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Emerging Markets 03 Dec 2015 by Tojo Jose

India provides a breakthrough commitment at Paris on coal use reduction

India provides a breakthrough commitment at Paris on coal use reduction

India has made its climate support commitment that the country is ready to reduce the use of coal if the West provides finance and technology in renewable energies. The willingness to reduce coal use is a breakthrough at the Paris climatic talk. At present, India coal is the largest energy source for India and it is the leading user of coal. “We have made it very clear that solar and wind are out first commitment. Hydro, nuclear-all of these non-carbon sources are what we will develop to the largest extend that we can. What cannot be met by these will be met by coal,” Ajay Mathur, negotiator of the country stated at the Paris Conference. Coal provides nearly two third

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China & East Asia 01 Dec 2015 by Tojo Jose

Happy China assures continuation of renminbi reforms; but rules out sudden depreciation

Happy China assures continuation of renminbi reforms; but rules out sudden depreciation

The new hero in the international currency market- renminbi (RMB) will not undergo sudden changes according to its manager the People’s Bank of China (PCB). Speaking after the acquisition of RMB’s international status, Mr Yi Gang, deputy governor of PCB, said that the IMF decision was a validation of his country’s reform efforts. He ensured that the reforms will continue though there will not be sudden changes in renminbi. “There is no basis for continued yuan depreciation,” he added. China is following some sort of a managed floating of its currency and controls the value of renminbi vis a vis the US Dollar. The PCB allows RMB to move within 2% on e

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China & East Asia 30 Nov 2015 by Tojo Jose

IMF adopts China’s Renminbi as an international reserve currency

IMF adopts China’s Renminbi as an international reserve currency

The International Monetary Fund has decided to include China’s Renminbi (RMB) as a reserve currency under the SDR basket of currencies. RMB’s inclusion in the SDR currency basket gives a symbolic status to the China currency. A debate about the inclusion of RMB in the currency basket was going on over the last few years. In the IMF, the Quota review about the currency composition of the SDR basket was made few months ago and the Fund has postponed the decision on RMB, urging China to make further reforms on the currency and financial liberalization front. Beijing has devised many political measures to promote the internationalization of RMB. It has adopted pressure ta

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Emerging Markets 30 Nov 2015 by Tojo Jose

Developed world benefited hugely from fossil fuel; and they should pay more to save the planet–says Modi

Developed world benefited hugely from fossil fuel; and they should pay more to save the planet–says Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is supposed to bear the symbolic leadership of the third world at Paris COP 21 has made a strongly worded statement that the developed world should shoulder more responsibilities to save the planet. In an article with the Financial Times of London, Prime Minister provided heat to the Paris Conference saying that “Developed countries benefited from fossil fuel and they should shoulder the burden of climate protection more.” Modi’s aggressive and yet bold stand may influence the outcome of the Paris Conference. According to him, the advanced countries that “powered their way to prosperity on fossil fuel” must continue t

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China & East Asia 29 Nov 2015 by Tojo Jose

Chinese economy may shock the world in its deceleration - says the IMF

Chinese economy may shock the world in its deceleration - says the IMF

The IMF in its Asia Economic Outlook predicts that Chinese economy’s more than expected deceleration is an economic risk for developing Asia including India. At the Asia’s Economic Outlook Conference speech made by Mitsuhiro Furusawa, Deputy Managing Director of the IMF says that Renminbi regime shift will have ripple effects. China’s downward correction of its currency may produce competition to exports from rest of Asia. Trade volumes are coming down across Asia. India last month has reported consecutive decline in its export for the eleventh month. According to the Commerce Ministry, exports from the country may fall below $300 bn mark for the first time sin

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IMF and WTO 23 Nov 2015 by Tojo Jose

WTO’s Nairobi MC may hit by trade conflicts

WTO’s Nairobi MC may hit by trade conflicts

The upcoming Nairobi Ministerial Conference (MC) of the WTO may not produce any substantial achievements given the trends of pre-MC meetings. Usually preparatory discussions are conducted by members. There are groups within WTO just like-minded formations on each issue. Current trends on trade discussions before the Nairobi MC show that agricultural trade liberalization continues to be the prime area of conflict. There are several pressure groups in agricultural trade. The G33, Cairns Group, EU and the USA are the leading ones. Reports indicate that the G33, including India has come with a hard stand on the use of Special Safeguard Duties. G33, which is also called   &

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