Emerging Markets 13 Jan 2016 by Tojo Jose

Emerging world will be caught into the tranquility of the developed countries: warns IMF

Emerging world will be caught into the tranquility of the developed countries: warns IMF

The IMF has cautioned that there is no escape for the emerging countries from the ongoing recession emitted by the advanced bloc. Trends show that in the immediate future, the growth trend of the developing and advanced countries will converge. IMF’s Director General Ms Chrsitine Legarde in a meeting of the monetary economists in Paris told that there is no escape for the vibrant EMEs, but to get into the recession trend in a year or two.   Ms Legarde reminded that the slowdown of the emerging countries will further dip down growth in the advanced world.  One percent decline of growth in the emerging world will reduce GDP of the advanced countries by 0.2%. Alread

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China & East Asia 12 Jan 2016 by Tojo Jose

Oil may dive to new lows under Chinese impact-warns forecasters

Oil may dive to new lows under Chinese impact-warns forecasters

Crude prices that reached its eleven year low and trading near to early $30s may fall to new lows. According to ace forecasters, decline of the world’s largest commodity buyer- China, may push oil to the new lows. Morgan Stanley has predicted that China’s economic uncertainty and its spread effect on the rest of the Emerging Markets may bring down crude prices to $20. In the past, investment bankers and rating agencies have made varied prediction for the future price path of crude extending from $20 to $80. Other major trackers of crude –Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch also reported that a scoop to $20s is very possible. Crude price

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China & East Asia 08 Jan 2016 by Tojo Jose

China brings harsh measures to rebalance financial markets and currency

China brings harsh measures to rebalance financial markets and currency

After prolonged loss of the currency’s value and frequent shut down of the stock market, China has launched stringent measures to correct its market and currency. Reports from financial quarters indicate that the government and the central bank are issuing unpublished warnings to banks and corporate to stop buying dollars beyond a level. This latest move on checking dollar outflow, which is called capital control, is usually adopted by an ordinary developing country while facing foreign currency scarcity. The Peoples Bank of China has already sold significant amount of Dollar into the foreign exchange market to stop further depreciation of its currency. In December itself,

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Emerging Markets 05 Jan 2016 by Tojo Jose

Crude rises on the shoulders of Middle-East tension

Crude rises on the shoulders of Middle-East tension

Oil has found a new messiah for escaping from the present downward scoop- political tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran. After staying for a considerable period around the somewhat ‘new low normal’ of near $ 35, Brent- the most quoted index has resurged to $38.8 in the first New Year trading day. Escalation of tension between the two largest OPEC producers will definitely cause upward price pressure; bringing joy to both countries. So far, trends reveal that market is following the tension so intensively apart from anything else and it may control price movement in the immediate future. Both Suadi Arabia and Iran were muscling in Yemen throughout last year and the

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China & East Asia 04 Jan 2016 by Tojo Jose

China manufacturing sector contraction brings shocks in markets and currencies across Asia.

China manufacturing sector contraction brings shocks in markets and currencies across Asia.

Stock markets across Asia that opened for the first time in 2016 witnessed sharp falls after China’s manufacturing sector reported contraction. The contraction of manufacturing sector in China was reported in the Nikkei Asian Review index which was brought by Japan’s publications giant - Nikkei. The worst trend happened in China where stock trading has stopped after leading indices – the Shanghai composite and the Shenzhen Composite fell by around 7% on Monday morning. The stock market reaction came after the official manufacturing index of China – Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reported a decline indicating contraction of manufacturing activities f

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Emerging Markets 29 Dec 2015 by Tojo Jose

Saudi Arabia launches austerity measures

Saudi Arabia launches austerity measures

World’s largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia brought several austerity programmes on Monday in its effort to adjust with the continuing oil price slide. The austerity measures include spending cuts, subsidy reform and call for privatization. Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit is expected to be a staggering 15 per cent of GDP in 2015. IMF has warned that Saudi Arabia may empty its foreign exchange reserves in five years if it makes deficit like the size of the current year. After the oil slide, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency has withdrawn $70bn in funds managed by overseas financial institutions. The Kingdom’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen by almost $73bn th

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China & East Asia 26 Dec 2015 by Tojo Jose

China gives final touches to AIIB

China gives final touches to AIIB

China on Friday has formally established the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in Beijing. "The AIIB is legally established as the Articles of Agreement take effect today," intimated China’s Minster of Finance, Lou Jiwei in Beijing. The AIIB was formally established after 17 countries having 50.1% votes ratified it. According to the AIIB Charter, if at least 10 signatories with a combined voting strength of at least 50% ratify the Charter, the institution comes into effective. The bank with headquarter in Beijing has 57 members at present. Chinese officials repeatedly indicated that membership will be expanded in future as important countries like Japan yet to joi

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China & East Asia 22 Dec 2015 by Tojo Jose

China to expand government expenditure to stimulate the economy

China to expand government expenditure to stimulate the economy

China’s top policy making body indicated that the administration is going to introduce a group of measures to correct the existing abnormalities and guide the economy to achieve higher growth. The Central Economic Work Conference, where economic policy guidelines are taken, decided to increase government deficit and to make monetary policy more flexible. China is experiencing moderate growth, which according to the policy makers is the ‘new normal’, given the economy’s current phase of development. But a more fundamental and deep problem for China is that in the context of declining global demand for its exports, domestic demand is not picking up. Declinin

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US and Europe 21 Dec 2015 by Tojo Jose

Brent falls to eleven year low as US readies to export crude after 40 years

Brent falls to eleven year low as US readies to export crude after 40 years

The Brent grade crude prices dipped to the 2004 levels indicating that oversupply continues to drive oil prices down. On Monday, Brent recorded $36.1, the lowest figure since 2004. A similar pattern is visible on the other variety- the WTI (West Texas Intermediary). Renewed momentum in US sites is considered to be the immediate reason for the price fall. On another development, the US has revealed its intentions to enter the export market. Last week, Congress ratified a plan to remove its 40 year old ban on crude oil exports. Observers point out that it will take considerable time for the US decision to take effect. But still crude has got a new price fall factor. According to th

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IMF and WTO 20 Dec 2015 by Tojo Jose

US finally agrees to the IMF governance reforms

US finally agrees to the IMF governance reforms

Five years after the IMF Board of Governors approved the historic quota reforms of the IMF, the US Congress has given consent to it on December 18th. The Congress has passed the quota reform after rejecting the IMF Board of Governor’s decision several times during the last five years. IMF’s voting pattern is peculiar as it gives vote share (and the quota or share of money that a member country has to give to the IMF) in accordance with the economic weight of members. Every important decision including the quota reforms need 85% of votes in the IMF. The US has nearly 17% of the total votes and that gives it a veto power. In the US, international treaties need the c

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