Monetary Policy 24 Nov 2016 by Tojo Jose

Manmohan makes a scorching attack on demonetization; PM calls Cabinet Meeting

Manmohan makes a scorching attack on demonetization; PM calls Cabinet Meeting

Nobody has expected that – the ruling BJP or even the Congress. Former PM and economist – Manmohan Singh made a scorching attack on demonetization. In a solo performance at Rajaya Sabha, Dr Singh who is known as the father of India’s economic reforms, described currency ban as an ‘organized loot and a legalized plunder’. His words were sharp as he asked the PM to name even a single country where people were not allowed to withdraw their deposits. After Dr Singh’s attack, Prime Minister Narendra Modi left the Rajya Sabha without making a reply. He is expected to make his point on Friday. Manmohan Singh who was attending the Parliament after a l

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Monetary Policy 20 Nov 2016 by Tojo Jose

Why we need an emergency monetization plan as well?

Why we need an emergency monetization plan as well?

India is in a soul-searching debate about the effectiveness and consequences of PM Modi’s demonetization war on black money. The debate is started and led by the academicians and the media, and fortunately, it is yet to reach the common man. Ordinary people take pride that their sacrifice is worthful to bring down the rich and disloyal in their neighborhood. Their belief and commitment are indeed the best asset for the government to survive any potential popular outrage. PM Modi is perhaps one of the rare post-independence leaders who secures such a jealous level of trusts of the common man. But popular sentiments sometimes have only short run life. Especially they may die

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Monetary Policy 17 Nov 2016 by Tojo Jose

Fed gives policy warning: will make the rate hike soon

Fed gives policy warning: will make the rate hike soon

The Chair of the US Fed, Janet Yellen indicated that the US central bank is going to make its anticipated rate hike soon.  She signalled that an increase in short-term interest rates could “become appropriate relatively soon”, asserting that the US central bank is reluctant to delay it for too long. The Fed is trying to reduce unemployment while achieving a minimum level of inflation.  The two set goals are maximum employment and price stability. Next meeting of the Fed which is going to take the critical rate hike decision is scheduled for December 13-14. In its latest policy review, the central bank stated that the case for higher rates had strengthened. T

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Monetary Policy 14 Nov 2016 by Tojo Jose

Government launches series of fresh steps; old notes can be used for selected transactions up to Nov. 24

Government launches series of fresh steps; old notes can be used for selected transactions up to Nov. 24

After a chaotic period of monetary shock, the government has come out with a group of measures to arrest the difficult cash stringent situation in the country. To smoothen transactions, government has announced that old notes can be received in selected spots like petrol pumps etc up to 24th of this month. The decision was taken late Sunday night at the meeting of senior government officials. Now, people can use the denominated notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 at petrol pumps, government hospitals, government-run cooperative shops, air-ticket counters, milk booths, , burial grounds, international airports, to buy tickets at railway stations and for metro trains, to pay for medicines i

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Monetary Policy 13 Nov 2016 by Tojo Jose

Public supports PM with sacrifices as liquidity squeeze is catching business and economy

Public supports PM with sacrifices as liquidity squeeze is catching business and economy

The country is witnessing an unparallel public support and sacrifice to fight black money after Prime Minister launched demonetization.  At the same time, trends show liquidity paralysis is catching the economy that may affect even the country’s GDP growth. On the other side, bank staffs are working hard to meet both demonetization process and liquidity injection.   Finance Minister indicated that the process of enabling new note delivery through the ATMs or recalibration will start in two weeks. He said that preparing the ATM for handling the newly designed thin notes of Rs 2000 and Rs 500 denominations has not done early as it may led to leak of the demonetizati

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Monetary Policy 13 Nov 2016 by Tojo Jose

Government starts the issue of new Rs 500 notes to soften liquidity trauma

Government starts the issue of new Rs 500 notes to soften liquidity trauma

In a step that will address the present currency chaos, the Government today launched new Rs 500 notes. Previously, it was the most sought currency note. This step is expected to facilitate monetization as the new Rs 2000 notes seems to be awkward solution in meeting transaction needs of the people. The Rs 500 denomination was the largest component of the previous currency system as it constituted to nearly 48% value of the notes circulated. Non-issue of the new Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes proved to be the main defect of the demonetization drive. It has created liquidity shocks in the system and currency chaos. Non-issue of these two most sought notes felt that demonetization was has

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Monetary Policy 13 Nov 2016 by Tojo Jose

Good intention but poor thinking - what troubles demonetization?

Good intention but poor thinking - what troubles demonetization?

Prime Minister’s surprising demonetization experiment has rich credibility and shows his commitment towards black money fight. People have extended tremendous support as well and are ready to bear further for the success of the programme. At the same time, the programme has exposed some serious and unbelievably low quality thinking at the top level when comes to practical implementation. At the end of the first few day’s experiment, the demonetization is going on but the opposite process of monetization is facing tremendous difficulties. The inability to grasp relative importance of the most sought currencies – Rs 500 and Rs 1000 and to design and print them new

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Monetary Policy 08 Nov 2016 by Tojo Jose

Logic of withdrawing Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes

Logic of withdrawing Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes

In a surprising move that is unmatched in India’s currency history, the government has decided to withdraw two of India’s most circulating highest denomination notes. From midnight, today onwards Rs 500 and Rs 1000 will be replaced with new Rs 500 and Rs 2000 notes. These two notes constitute to nearly 83% value of currency notes in circulation according to the RBI.  While announcing the withdrawal, government has pointed out the mechanism for exchanging the existing high denomination notes for new notes. The existing notes will be accepted at railway stations, bus stands, post offices, besides banks. People get 50 days until December 31 to return the notes, PM ha

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Monetary Policy 08 Nov 2016 by Tojo Jose

India may experience a ‘monetary bandh’ on November 9

India may experience a ‘monetary bandh’ on November 9

With no banks, no ATM, no shop to receive two of the highest denominations, India can experience a monetary bandh on November 9. With the disappearance of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes, 83% of India’s currency note value in circulation are withdrawn. According to the RBI, Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes account for 83% of the total value of notes circulated in the economy. Inconvenience will be prevailing on transaction front though government has made several arrangements including acceptance of the notes for important purposes. Some of the issues and timing will make the government’s good effort more painful for the public. An example is that after an off day for banks and ATM

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Monetary Policy 04 Oct 2016 by Tojo Jose

Debutants- MPC and Patel make a rocking start with rate cut

Debutants- MPC and Patel make a rocking start with rate cut

The first monetary policy review after takeover of the Monetary Policy Committee and the new Governor Urjit Patel has made a 25 basis cut in the policy rate. The repo rate is now brought down to 6.25% - the lowest rate in six years. The new policy rate decision marks a new era in India’s central banking with the takeover of the monetary policy decision by a body -the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). It is a half-government and half central bank body – where the RBI Governor enjoys a meager privilege of casting vote.  Formalities in monetary policy reviews also changed with the new body as the decision notes to be published immediately. With MPC, the finance mini

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